The Market
The US crude death rate runs near 10 per 1,000 and is materially higher in older counties. Pull your county figure from state vital statistics.
Aging populations push the crude death rate up over time. Set 0 to hold flat.
Your Firm
Organic share movement from reputation, preneed maturities, and referral relationships.
The national cremation rate has climbed roughly one and a half to two points a year for a decade. This is the single biggest driver of revenue per call.
Acquisition Scenario
Attrition after a name change is real. Eighty to ninety percent is a defensible base case when the family name stays on the building.
Removed duplicate overhead: one preparation room, one fleet, shared staff, consolidated back office.
Market Position Today
Five Year Outlook
The Cremation Drag
Forecast, Acquisition & Share Ladder Pro
Five Year Forecast
| Year | Market Deaths | Your Calls | Cremation % | Rev / Call | Revenue | EBITDA |
|---|
Acquisition Scenario
| Metric | Standalone | With Acquisition | Change |
|---|
Share Ladder
What each additional acquisition of this size does to market position.
| Firms Acquired | Calls | Market Share | Revenue | EBITDA |
|---|